Google Search To Surpass Size of Microsoft Windows in 2009
Why is Microsoft (MSFT) so concerned about Google? (GOOG) Lots of reasons, one of which is this: By this time next year, Google's search business will be larger and more profitable than the most profitable and legendary monopoly in history--Microsoft Windows. (Just Google's search business--that doesn't even include AdSense).
Before we go to the numbers, a few important observations.
- Both products are natural monopolies. Google's share of the search market should continue to approach Microsoft's share of the operating system market (90%+)
- Both products are wildly, fantastically profitable. Microsoft's Windows business has operating margins of 75%-plus. So does Google's search business (once you factor out the billions Google is spending on products that produce zero revenue).
- Google natural monopoly is growing a lot faster than Microsoft's. Google's search business should be bigger than Microsoft's Windows business by early next year (at the latest). Google is also growing faster than Microsoft's two monopolies combined--Windows and Office. Google has yet to develop a second huge, fantastically profitable monopoly--the Office equivalent--but AdSense is getting there.
(A hat-tip to Richard Waters, who made a similar point in an FT article today.) And now for the numbers:
GOOGLE SEARCH vs MICROSOFT WINDOWS
Quarterly Revenue Q3 2006-Q1 2008
Google's search business will pass Microsoft's Windows business by early next year (at the latest). Good thing Microsoft has another huge, wildly profitable monopoly: Office. Add that to the calculation, and Microsoft can breathe easy for a few more years:
GOOGLE SEARCH vs MICROSOFT WINDOWS + OFFICE
Quarterly Revenue Q3 2006-Q1 2008
Of course, Google's visible in that Microsoft rearview mirror, too--especially now that it offers a product that is directly competitive with Office.
And then there's the most depressing comparison (from Microsoft's perspective). After 13 years of heavy investment, frequent doubling down, and--until recently--a browser monopoly, here's how Microsoft's online business is doing relative to Google's search business. Remember:
- Google was founded four years after Microsoft launched its online business, and
- Microsoft's search business is just a tiny piece of Microsoft Online.
GOOGLE SEARCH vs MICROSOFT ONLINE
Quarterly Revenue Q3 2006-Q1 2008



http://watchmojo.com/web/blog/?p=601
I stress could, but nonetheless, your and the FT's articles only reiterate this probabilitity.
The one problem we do have with Google: speed. Their apps tend to hang once in awhile. They need to find a way to solve this.
Seems to me they could easily solve this by saving locally and then updating the cloud side in the background. Haven't downloaded Gears yet, so don't know whether apps work any better with that.
( released yesterday in US ).
The linux version is SOLD out.
The XP version is not sold out.
---------
The linux version comes with links to Youtube, Google Docs, Google Picasso, Google GMAIL.
1. It looks as if the "Office" revenue figures are coming from MSFT's reported revenues in the Business segment. That's not all Office. Based on what they've said at the last few Financial Analyst Meetings, Exchange is approaching $2B/year, SharePoint is about $1B/year, and Dynamics (formerly Microsoft Business Solutions) is more than $1B per year. I also know that Project has been a $1B/year business for a long time (believe it or not), and products such as Comms Server and Visio contribute around $500m/year. Margins on all these products are lower than on Office, but most (not Comms Server) are profitable.
2. In addition to all the non-Office products that compose its Business segment as mentioned above, the Server and Tools business (Windows Server, SQL Server) is profitable (30% margins) and growing revenues average of 15% for the last six years. Not monopoly, but a good business.
Look at all these stats together, and seems like they should get out of search and advertising and sell off (or scale back to maintenance mode) most of the consumer online sites, focusing instead on hosted business apps--they're already doing it with Exchange and SharePoint, why not Office? If somebody's going to canniblize their "real" business, it might as well be them.
It's relatively easy to switch from Google to another search engine. Now, the propensity for users to actually switch is low due to the brand strength, but they could if they wanted. Another engine is just a URL away. The same can't be said for someone switching from Windows to a Mac.
I'm curious why you believe that AdSense is becoming a monopoly? If anything, it seems that Google is (rightly) ratcheting down its Content Network.
Your excellent Google earnings spreadsheet suggests that the Gross Margin for Google's Content Network (the primary distribution outlet for AdSense) is 12% and that as an overall percentage of Google revenue, the Content Network has declined every quarter since GOOG went public.
Given the stellar conversion rates it Google's Search product delivers to advertisers, and the bad press (click fraud, litigation over opt-out, etc) generated from its lower performing Content Network, it seems that AdSense/ Google Content Network are increasingly diluting the strength of Google brand while adding very little to the bottom line.
If Google is looking to add a second monopoly, its much-lauded collaborative application suite would be a much better focus than a low-margin, brand diluting product like AdSense.
I read on one blackhat blog about google stockholders (not employees) who run bots to generate revenue for google. Again, there are turnkey programs out there to do this sort of stuff, and it's not illegal!
Incidentally, "reducing accidental clicks" does not address the problem at all.
Of course, until advertisers wake up, all of this is irrelevant. Adwords/adsense is the most effective spam monetization platform ever created and it's unrealistic to assume anything else can come close.
Speaking of ads, I still don't see any on this site!
If Google.COM is a natural monopoly, why does Google.DE exist? Or Google.CO.UK? Or hundreds of other Googles?
Just opening your eyes would go a long way: Have you ever heard of Baidu? Is that a natural monopoly too?
Perhaps in a year there will be several hundred million monopolies on the Internet?
I'm not asking for scientific research -- just some basic common sense.
True: Only google.com can present the google.com *OPINION* (just as only alleyinsider.com can present the alleyinsider.com opinion).
Who cares? I may not be *interested* in google.com's opinion.
I wonder how many books that are on the Pope's Index are / were read *because* they were on the Pope's index. Generally, I today decide whether I wish to read something or not -- and I am also able to *evaluate* the content with a certain degree of "enlightenment" (and I *do* hope I do not do Immanuel Kant any disservice be mentioning his name in this context).
If I need guidance, I generally consult experts -- *not* Google (so see what happens when you run *THAT* through your prediction formulas). If your "result" is that a "one-size fits-all" engine will give you better results than a topical expert, then I guess alleyinsider.com's opinion will simply continue to look to such "one-size fits-all" answers to all questions.
In that case, we would simply disagree. How will the market decide? Time will tell, I guess.
;P nmw
Oh boy maybe he will dive in and fix it just like the great work he did at TWA and the huge positive impact he has had so for at WCI, BBI, and MOT.
Look out below.
His first great idea for Yahoo: Buy WCI, BBI, and MOT
CBS and News Corp need to be worried about GOOG as they are in the advertising business. MSFT, which is not a big advertising vehicle, should focus on creating cool new applications that run in the cloud, on the desktop or both at once.
One thing. When you say "Just Google's search business--that doesn't even include AdSense," can you define the numbers you're getting a bit more.
Last time I looked, Google does NOT break out search revenue from contextual or other ad revenue. "AdSense" simply means revenue generated by ads outside of Google's own properties -- AdSense For Content (one of several AdSense programs), AdSense For Search, AdSense Audio and so on. Do you really have pure search revenue figures up there?
And OpenOffice or GoogleDocs presentations cannot of yet compete.
Now for basic word processing and spreadsheets, they are a completely sufficient alternative, and better on the collaboration end as pointed out by Henry. Since a nightly Vista auto-update KILLED my MS Word (how does this sort of thing happen?!?!), I have been using OpenOffice Writer without noticing any real drawbacks, in fact, I prefer its more customizable/simple interface, the new Office 2007 menus were quite annoying anyway.
The latency thing in GDocs should be fixed, ideally with local saves and AJAXed syncs in the background.
Of course it needs to be said that most consumers have an irrational fear of their local drives being accessed by Internet apps, so that is always a consideration for Google (see the hoopla over GoogleDesktop search).
While there are some valid concerns, let's not forget that MSFT basically has free reign over anything on your Windows desktop by definition: It could/can send any data from it to it's own servers, while bypassing Vista's own annoying/slow/silly/going-over-board permission interrupt ("Allow... ?").
So if you feel safe in any way, well, that is just an illusion to start with. The only question is: Who do you trust more? MSFT or e.g. Google? Now there's a question for you.
I'm using "Google Sites" revenue, which is all the revenue that is generated on Google's properties. There's some YouTube and other in there, but I think the vast majority is search.
Net revenue from third-party sites (which includes some search and some AdSense for Content revenue) would add about $300 million in the latest quarter.
Comparing Google's sole source of significant income to just one revenue stream for Microsoft is like comparing apples to elephants.
Starbucks and McDo compete ultimately for the share of the stomach and share of the wallet. In a sense, this is real competition.
I remember the quote from a Coke marketing manager who remarked that he got up in the middle of the night wondering if he competed with Campbell's soup.
-S
Why is MS worried about Google? Your last chart says it all. MS isn't dumb enough to compare their desktop OS sales to Google's search sales, but they know that Google is eating their lunch in terms of search.
1) As mentioned: you have another brand, and good search, you forget about Google. All it really has to back up with is its advertising system. You won't replace that so easily.
2) As devices come more and more into place, and things get more and more automated, people won't spent too much time on search anymore.
And applications will be again far more built into the devices core OS, which then all have to function well with the online eco system. You don't get this from a webserver driven system.
3) Ecosystems will be a better fit. If an ecosystem around a core OS and a neat internet-able online-desktop system hits the market, that includes specialised solutions for finding sth. you want to buy, and information services, etc, you want to have a software that actually helps you organize your activities.
YOu want to organize your shopping, organize your information needs, organize your this and that. And this is to be done in specialized tools and not in a universal search GUI.
And why you do want a general system and not just visit the specialists products site? Yeah, because you want all your devices to work with the functionality of the site, and thus you want someone design the whole system that actually has designed the OS of the devices, too. Now is that Google?
Yet whatsoever. Google might very well consider some smart M&As or expanding its exclusive network. But in the end that would bring more risk and guts than Google so far seemed to likely face.
Are you aware that the Windows is the "most legendary and profitable monopoly in history"? That honor would go to Bell, perhaps Standard Oil, perhaps DeBeers... depends on what you define as "legendary" and "profitable". Nor is Google search or Windows a "natural monopoly". I don't think you understand business enough for me to explain what that is, but perhaps you could go get an economics textbook and look it up.
What there are, for both companies, are network effects, not decreasing production cost structures. That makes it harder for competitors to enter, it does not make it economically infeasible. In fact there are viable competitors to both: Apple, Linux (though nontraditional)... for Google many more but not necessarily in the US market. There are markets in which there is near-even share between many competitors. I won't explain network effects either.
Finally as pointed out by others here, it is misleading to compare quarterly revenues of media advertising with quarterly revenues from sales of software licenses, unless you are just trying to grasp for some headline that includes "Microsoft" and "Google" in it.
Ultimately, the consumer pays the price for such anti-trust "protection" in the form of higher prices and inferior products (VISTA anyone?).
Anyway, Google took advantage of the stupidity of Yang et al. at Yahoo just like Microsoft took advantage of IBMs back in the days of ms dos. Interesting parallel, no?
Google didn't even invent its revenue model; Thanks Overture!
Oh, and the famous search algorithm at the heart of Google search index merely embodies what academic citations have accomplished for hundreds of years; namely to point out whats relevant.
That boom in the eMarketing is caused by the boom in that particular technology and availability of mobile internet service on actually most mobile phones.
We come to click Google AD's every minute of our surfing the net out of our knowledge. 'Generic as 90% do not know what GOOGLE AD is'. If you come and see it is true that most of my kinsmen have a definite passion with MSFT and all it has got be it Office, Visio, Windows, Xbox or even Internet Explorer. Ask anyone in these parts with your emails if the word Mozilla or Safari has ever gotten in his/her ears!!!!!
This passion I am talking about is the potential that MSFT has in this market that as I am telling you it is coming Up...
GOOGLE take our hearts too if you really wanna be universal and Kul
But in no way are any of the two products a *natural* monopoly. Most economists these days do not even believe such things exist in practice.
Sure. Microsoft can ignore google, and the rest of the industry. And the result is that since Steve Ballmer took over, MSFT stock has gone nowhere in 8 years, while virtually every other tech company has boomed.
- failure to grow server OS share
- failure to increase desktop OS sales
- failure = vista
- failure to win the smartphone market
- failure to make inroads on the internet despite making the browser that a majority of users use
- failure to make a good competitor to the ipod/itunes (for 7 years and counting!)
- failure to make hd-dvd a success
- failure to produce a reliable gaming console...
Leads to...
- failure of MSFT to outperform my savings account
Here all that people know is
Computers = Windows
Browser = Internet explorer
Office apps = MS Office
X-box = What?
Android = English?
AdSense = Psychology?
Symbian OS = Most used (remmember I know the name as I am a kinda pro!)
Now that this is a growing market still both sides have got a potential in investing in these forgotten parts. Not only in Computers but also in mobile internet as the telephony grows at a WOW rate.
For GOOGLE to grab my people it has already done that as we 'due to our lack of know-how' click whatever seems to have good colour or graphics, that means they earn our clicks, "make us some cheap computers as your Social responsibility then GOOG"
May be it is due to bad experiences I have had but instinctively I think 'no business Grows at a smooth climbing scale as your data shows Mr Henry, I'm into Business Management in my 3rd year' though...
Our ancestors told us in Swahili "Subira yavuta heri!" = 'Pacience pays!' Let us wait and wesurely shall have the winner who will obviously fulfil our aching need for innovation. Keep fighting Guys!!
Kizito
G linux
Bye bye, Billy!
With the internet being so "virtual" and reliant on a network, Google won't be of any use if networks die (not that this will ever happen in the near future). My concern is that Google makes money on intangibles and "virtuals". I can't get a copy of GoogleApps on my computer. If I have no internet then I'm dead in the water.
It's hard for me to invest in a company like GOOG without any products that can stand on it's own. Ok well Android for cellphones is coming out, that's a good start but they have to sell it. Not give it out for free.
Free has never been profitable. Let's face it, like Linux just isn't serious competition at all. Remember the hoopla when IBM was promoting Linux? Didn't go anywhere. Businesses WANT TO PAY for products that give solid support base and MS has been smart about that. Key phrase is "want to pay". Free Android won't cut it, like the one off Linux phones that have been on and off.
Google and Microsoft each have their own forests - the two may overlap at the edges, but it is possible for old growth and new growth to survive on an ongoing basis without one overwhelming the other.
What is more dangerous to both is the axeman - that outside force that comes through to make both forests irrelevant.
I want to see Google convincted as a monopolist and then forced to pay billions in fines.
If Google is a natural monopoly in search and is growing faster than Windows, then they need to be heavily regulated just like MSFT.
Sorry lunatic MSFT haters and drooling Google fanboys, but Google is already abusing their market dominance and its prepostrous the govt hasnt started seeking "remedies".
I know lots of you want these laws to only apply to MSFT, but sorry, they dont.
I am very uncomfortable with Google's position in the marketplace. Still can't grasp the irrelevant comparison between MSFT and GOOG.
MSFT's vision was:
"A PC in Every Home"
GOOG's visions:
"Do No Evil" (really creepy)
"Organizing the World's Information"
The latter suggests that they want in on how information is distrubuted so they can plaster their ads and make a signifant chunk of change.
Microsoft was known as a business that actually sold stuff while the majority of Google's users and MSFT haters have no clue on how Google makes money.
They're fans and use Google's so-called free products primarily search, Youtube and Gmail.
Little do they know that there is a price to every FREE product. EVERYTIME they search on Google, they donate to the engine a piece of their privacy and data that gets sold at a very expensive premium to desperate, option-lacking advertisers.
So yes...Google exploits user's data for unbelievable profit. Google also holds patents on how they can capitalize from their user's mental weaknesses.
In terms of Google's stock price...when they feel they want to add an extra $billion or two to their quarterly profits, they simply punish advertisers with bogus filters like the Adwords Quality Score.
That to me is an extreme violation and total abuse of power. There is no one stopping them and advertisers simply have no choice. They did a great job fooling people into using their engine and thus offer decent traffic at a higly uncontrolable price.
When the Web gained momentum in 1993 (my freshman year in high school), I immediately became an advocate, supporter and user. The web back then seemed so genuine and open. Little did I know that 15 years later, a search engine will police the Web and whore it out for financial gain.
I am very uncomfortable with Google's position in the marketplace. Still can't grasp the irrelevant comparison between MSFT and GOOG.
MSFT's vision was:
"A PC in Every Home"
GOOG's visions:
"Do No Evil" (really creepy)
"Organizing the World's Information"
The latter suggests that they want in on how information is distrubuted so they can plaster their ads and make a signifant chunk of change.
Microsoft was known as a business that actually sold stuff while the majority of Google's users and MSFT haters have no clue on how Google makes money.
They're fans and use Google's so-called free products primarily search, Youtube and Gmail.
Little do they know that there is a price to every FREE product. EVERYTIME they search on Google, they donate to the engine a piece of their privacy and data that gets sold at a very expensive premium to desperate, option-lacking advertisers.
So yes...Google exploits user's data for unbelievable profit. Google also holds patents on how they can capitalize from their user's mental weaknesses.
In terms of Google's stock price...when they feel they want to add an extra $billion or two to their quarterly profits, they simply punish advertisers with bogus filters like the Adwords Quality Score.
That to me is an extreme violation and total abuse of power. There is no one stopping them and advertisers simply have no choice. They did a great job fooling people into using their engine and thus offer decent traffic at a higly uncontrolable price.
When the Web gained momentum in 1993 (my freshman year in high school), I immediately became an advocate, supporter and user. The web back then seemed so genuine and open. Little did I know that 15 years later, a search engine will police the Web and whore it out for financial gain.
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95% of all users of GA are small companies who get GA at NO CHARGE. There are very few firms who pay for the PREMIUM GA service. So for the 500K businesses Google says are using GA, hardly any pay money.
So GOOGLE is LYING their corporate backsides and be extremely deceptive in allowing the belief that those 500K businesses are paying $$ for GA.
That means there are hundreds of thousands of beta testers because there are few CUSTOMERS.
Microsft should be worried about Google in Search.
Microsoft has nothing to worry about with GA. Not only are people not purchasing GA but Google is having one heck of a time with customer service and support.
I have never seen a company hide access to important company phone numbers like Google. I think that Google doesn't like to talk to actual customers.
Also, the GA folks just went on a seven city US tour for their product line. They invited Enterprise IT staff to these events.
The GA people spent most of their time talking about consumers and not business needs.
They actually referred to searching for Britanny Spears pictures at least a dozen times in the two cities where I saw this presentation.
The GA message was muddled and confusing and within a short time, most of the IT audience were emailing via their blackberry's.
Google hurt GA more in these presentations than helped.
The folks at GA have also killed the Postini line of services.
The GA folks thought that dropping the price would send millions of new users to sign up.
However the reality is that Google turned a rolext into a timex and now the perception is that Postini has no value anymore.
Also, all the major Postini customers are pissed off because anyone can get Postini cheaper than they paid for it.
Way to go, Google! You turned a $600M investment into a much weaker product.
Amazing!
And I thought the people at Google were the smartest kids in the room.
According to me Google can compete at best with microsoft Online business UNIT .
I know there are lots of Microsoft haters , but think twice 95% of people uses IWndows desktop and 91% of people uses Office and there is a certain % of poeple using thier other products .
but loving this debate , been seeing this for the last 15 years earlier with Netscape,mozzila,linux,unix ,SUN,oracle and now google.. Microsoft is still there .. LOL hopefully will see more in the coming decades .
*
...from your friendly neighborhood crazy old canuck
very nice
mirc
i use GApps only because they are free. But if I have to do something really important/advanced, I use MS office on MS Windows.
my clients may use their butt to laugh at me if I start using Google spreadsheets/docs etc when I need to do something serious and present it to them. Google prods they are just primitive.. just like a college project.
both GOOG and MSFT shud be good at what they are! computer is just a tool to make things easier for us. we have a lot to do in this world.
MSFT and GOOG can together build a better world.
I would perceive Google products like this:
Google docs - copied from MS Office
Google chrome - they tried to do something like MS Internet Explorer(they've used Safari's JavaScript engine)
Google Sites - They copied it completely from Microsoft Sharepoint system
Google Talk - it is a combination of various open source messengers
above are few examples that quickly came in to my mind..
tell me which product of Google is a stable release?
Gmail? Google docs?? most of the products are still in beta versions from years together!!.. lol
Google is definitely not confident about their own products.. how can we think of Google dominating the market place? funny ;)
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